CLIMATIC CHANGE ADAPTIVE BEHAVIOR OF REGIONAL AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS

DOI 10.32651/206-91

Issue № 6, 2020, article № 15, pages 91-98

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: КЛИМАТООБУСЛОВЛЕННОЕ АДАПТИВНОЕ ПОВЕДЕНИЕ РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫХ АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННЫХ СИСТЕМ

Keywords: CLIMATIC FACTOR, SCENARIO CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONS, PRODUCTION BEHAVIOUR, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS, REGIONAL AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS, DATABASE

Abstract: The type of production behaviour of regional producers of crop production is considered in the article as a combination of stable trends in the extensive and intensive factors that determine the volume of production, formed under the influence of a complex of soil-climatic, socio-economic conditions of management, and observed over a certain period of time. A retrospective analysis for 1995-2015, inclusive of linear trends in the dynamics of gross harvests of agricultural crops, combined with the dynamics of extensive (rate of change in sown area) and intensive (rate of change in yield) factors in the crop production regions shows the presence and preservation of 3 most common types production behaviour of regional agri-food systems: 1) expanded intensification of production; 2) intensification without increasing scale; 3) a decrease in the scale of production, not offset by its technological re-equipment. The type of production behaviour, acting as the initial conditions, can undergo transformation in connection with the predicted dynamics of climate change. The methods of such transformation by solving the corresponding extreme problems are considered.

Authors: Siptits Stanislav Ottovich, Romanenko Irina Anatolevna, Evdokimova Natalia Egorovna