MONITORING OF PRODUCTION OF POTATOES IN RUSSIA AND ITS FORECAST BY 2020

DOI 10.32651/2070-0288-2018-3-58-63

Issue № 3, 2018, article № 12, pages 58-63

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: МОНИТОРИНГ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА КАРТОФЕЛЯ В РОССИИ И ЕГО ПРОГНОЗ ДО 2020 ГОДА

Keywords: FOOD SAFETY, POTATOES, GROSS POTATOES HARVEST, POTATO YIELD

Abstract: The article attempts to make a forecast of potato production in Russia in the period until 2020 using economic and statistical tools. The problem of food security is revealed through the achievement of threshold values for the production and self-sufficiency of individual products. So, for the production of potatoes, the threshold value of food security is set at 95‰. It is important to understand the prospects and opportunities to achieve the established threshold values, but, in addition, it is necessary to assess the role of Russia in the world potato market. The conducted economic and statistical analysis showed that by 2020 gross potato harvest in Russia will be at the level of 30.2-35.5 million tons, and its yield, while maintaining current production conditions in the range of 164.4 to 177.4 centner / ha. In the world potato production, Russia occupies about 8‰ of the market. The analysis showed that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the former Soviet republics completely underwent a process of adaptation to market conditions. Thus, the Baltic countries drastically reduced the volumes of potato production in connection with the harmonization of their agrarian policy with the pan-European one. Leaders in production in the post-Soviet space remain Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, and the leaders in terms of growth were Turkmenistan (63 times), Tajikistan (29 times) and Uzbekistan (18 times). Leaders on a global scale in terms of growth were India (11 times, 12‰) and China (4.6 times, share - 26‰).

Authors: Osipov Vladimir Sergeevich, ZHevora Sergei Valentinovich, Bogoviz Aleksei Valentinovich