FORECASTING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AGRO-FOOD SPHERE OF RURAL TERRRITORIES BASED ON THE CLUSTER APPROACH

Issue № 10, 2013, article № 10, pages 65-72

Section: Social problems of rural territories

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ РАЗВИТИЯ АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЙ СФЕРЫ СЕЛЬСКИХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ НА ОСНОВЕ КЛАСТЕРНОГО ПОДХОДА

Keywords: FORECASTING, CLUSTER ANALYSIS, MODELING, AGRO-FOOD SPHERE, RURAL TERRITORIES

Abstract: The article deals with justification of the necessity of the usage of the methods of cluster analysis and optimization modeling in the development of the agro-food field planning of rural territories. We present the prediction algorithm, which allows to make alternative scenarios of the development of agro-food sphere of rural municipalities. The choice of the typical agro-enterprises of rural territories based on the packing of large arrays of the real economic data used in the subsequent optimization calculations. In making-out the economic and mathematical models it is used a scenario approach, that allows to substantiate the various scenarios of the development of agricultural production. The use of the scenario approach increases the validity of the working out forecasts. The rational setting of industrial structure of agricultural organizations helps significantly increase the economic efficiency of agricultural production. The improvement of the efficiency of agricultural production is a key factor in ensuring of a positive social development of rural territories. The practical realization of the model solutions will help to create fixed conditions for effective social development of rural territories and improvement of the quality of life of the rural population. We present the results of scenario forecasting development of agro-food sphere of rural territories of the Republic of Bashkortostan at the regional level. The scenarios of development are based on the model solutions, as well as on the prediction of the possible economic capacity and sale of the main types of agricultural production by the agro-enterprises of all types, actual and projected volumes of food consumption. Proposed forecast scenarios of development show the possible variants of rational food supply in accordance with scientifically-based nutritional standards and allow to form different models of production and use of agricultural products based on the effective organization of agro-food market.

Authors: Gusmanov Uzbek Gusmanovich, Gusmanov Rasul Uzbekovich, Stovba Evgenii Vladimirovich