PREDICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN THE REGION IN THE FUNCTIONING OF THE WTO

Issue № 10, 2013, article № 4, pages 25-32

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ РАЗВИТИЯ СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА РЕГИОНА В УСЛОВИЯХ ПРИСОЕДИНЕНИЯ К ВТО

Keywords: FORECASTING, REGION, COST, EFFICIENCY, INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT

Abstract: The necessity of improvement of the methodology of forecasting of development of agriculture in the region as an important function of management on the basis of indicators enabling to evaluate the development of scientific and technical progress, directed on increase of competitiveness of production in the conditions of functioning of the WTO. The study was made the forecast of manufacture of milk on the example of the Vologda area, in the farms which produce more than 30 ‰ of the volume of milk in the region. Using the method of analytical grouping defined relationship between the indicator average annual milk yield and the following factor signs: the output of offspring per 100 cows, feed consumption per 1 head, capital-labor ratio, Fondo-security. To check the homogeneity of the aggregate determined the coefficient of variation equal to 16.52 per cent. In order to improve the quality of forecasting of development of agriculture in the region should: apply a system of indicators to track trends in the areas of providing for public funding; to predict the development of human potential as a condition for the implementation of strategic tasks of agriculture; develop a system of indicators of innovation development, taking into account the specifics of the region's agriculture.

Authors: Agapova Tatiana Nikolaevna, Medvedeva Nina Afanasevna